‘Christian Genocide’: How U.S. Aid Suspension Could Affect Nigeria’s Economy

The diplomatic rift between Nigeria and the United States has continued to draw global concern as Africa’s largest economy struggles with security and economic challenges.

In July 2025, Yusuf Tuggar, Nigeria’s minister of Foreign Affairs, stated that Nigeria would not accept the deportation of Venezuelan nationals.

Speaking on Channels TV, Tuggar said, “It will be unfair for Nigeria to accept 300 Venezuelan deportees.”

He added that the recent visa restrictions imposed on Nigerian travelers by the U.S. were “not reciprocal” but a form of political pressure.

President Bola Tinubu has since downplayed the growing rift, insisting that Nigeria’s economy remains stable.

In a September 2025 address, he said his administration had met its projected non-oil revenue target for the year, adding that the country is no longer dependent on local borrowing to finance operations.

“I can brag that Nigeria is no longer borrowing any dime from local banks to run the economy,” Tinubu said. “When I took over, the exchange rate was N1900 to a dollar. It’s N1,450 now, and the naira is stabilising. What we need now is to build the infrastructure for export and import, to create jobs and opportunities for our people. That is my guarantee.”

Meanwhile, the United States recently revoked the permanent resident visa of Nobel Laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka after he declined a rescheduled visa interview fixed for September 11, 2025.  Soyinka later confirmed the revocation, saying, “I am banned, obviously, from the United States. And if you want to see me, you know where to find me.”

Even with the macroeconomic gains made so far since Tinubu’s administration began in May 2023, such as improvements in the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) performance, gradual naira stabilisation, and a marginal decline in inflation. Analysts warn that Washington’s threats could lead to massive economic disruption.

On his Truth Social Platform, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Nigeria of allowing the mass killing of Christians, declaring the country a “nation of particular concern”

“Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria. Thousands of Christians are being killed by radical Islamists. The United States cannot stand by while such atrocities are happening,” Trump said.

He added that he had instructed congressional leaders to investigate the matter and warned that the U.S. would cut off all assistance to Nigeria if the killings continue. Trump also threatened possible military intervention, saying, “If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians.”

U.S. Aid to Nigeria: What’s at Stake

The United States is one of Nigeria’s largest development partners, providing aid primarily through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

The areas of U.S. assistance to Nigeria include:

Health:

The health sector receives the largest portion of U.S. aid, aimed at improving health systems and combating diseases.

HIV/AIDS: Through the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the U.S. is the single largest contributor to Nigeria’s HIV response, providing life-saving antiretroviral treatment to over 1.6 million Nigerians and supporting testing, prevention, and care services.

Malaria: The U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) provides insecticide-treated nets, diagnostic test kits, and treatments, significantly contributing to the reduction of malaria deaths in Nigeria.

Tuberculosis, Maternal and Child Health, and Nutrition: The U.S. also supports programs for tuberculosis control, maternal and child health care, and nutrition initiatives.

 Global Health Security: This involves technical expertise and capacity building to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease outbreaks like COVID-19, Ebola, and cholera, by training epidemiologists and strengthening laboratory capacity.

Security and Counterterrorism:

The U.S. partners with Nigeria to address security challenges such as Boko Haram and other insurgent groups.

Military Training and Equipment: Assistance includes military training, equipment transfers (such as the A-29 Super Tucano aircraft), and intelligence-sharing.

Law Enforcement and Justice Reform: The U.S. provides technical assistance and training for law enforcement and judiciary professionals to combat issues like banditry, kidnapping, and human trafficking.

Peacebuilding Initiatives: The U.S. supports efforts to enhance accountability in security forces and mitigate drivers of communal violence.

Economic Growth and Development:

Aid in this area aims to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

Agriculture: Through the Feed the Future initiative, the U.S. supports farmers with training, better techniques, and financial assistance to increase productivity and improve nutrition.

Power/Energy: The Power Africa initiative has helped connect millions of Nigerian households and businesses to electricity, leveraging private sector investment in the energy sector.

Trade and Investment: The U.S. facilitates trade and investment, viewing Nigeria as a key trading partner and destination for foreign direct investment in Africa.

Governance and Democracy:

The U.S. supports the strengthening of democratic institutions, human rights, and civil society organisations.

Elections: This includes programs to support free and fair elections.

Civil Society Support: The U.S. provides grants and capacity building for local non-governmental organisations and community groups.

Humanitarian Assistance:

The U.S. is the largest bilateral donor of humanitarian assistance to Nigeria, providing significant support to millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and conflict-affected populations, particularly in the Northeast. This includes food assistance, basic health services, and logistical support.

Education and Exchanges:

The U.S. offers various educational and professional exchange programs, scholarships (like the Fulbright program), and support for basic education initiatives in Nigeria.

A withdrawal of these programs could have far-reaching consequences, particularly in health and humanitarian sectors where millions rely on the U.S.-funded initiatives.

Tinubu’s Response

In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), President Tinubu reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to religious freedom and partnership with the U.S.

“Nigeria stands firmly as a democracy governed by constitutional guarantees of religious liberty,” Tinubu wrote. “Our administration engages openly with Christian and Muslim leaders and continues to address security challenges affecting citizens across faiths.”

He added that labelling Nigeria as “religiously intolerant” does not reflect the country’s reality, emphasising that “religious freedom and tolerance remain core tenets of our national identity.”

Nigeria’s security challenges have persisted for years, including insurgency in the Northeast (Adamawa, Yobe, and Borno States), farmer-herder conflicts in the North Central, secessionist agitation in the Southeast, oil bunkering in the South-South, and banditry in the Northwest.

The Federal Government is reportedly working to resolve the rift with the U.S. swiftly, as President Tinubu is expected to lead a high-level delegation to meet with U.S. Vice President James Vance today, according to media reports.

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