Gas Supply Drops to 43% as NISO Rations Power, Grid Output Stalls at 4,300MW

The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has revealed that the country’s electricity distribution companies (DisCos) are currently receiving a drastically reduced load.

The reason is that Nigeria’s power plants are operating below their optimal capacity due to gas supply gaps.

In a market update released on Friday, February 27, 2026, the operator revealed that the national grid is currently struggling to maintain an average output of 4,300MW.

For a country of over 200 million people, this generation level is critically low, and NISO says it is tied directly to a massive shortage of gas supply to thermal power stations.

The Math of the Blackout: 57% Gas Shortfall

The statistics provided by NISO paint a worrying picture for the power sector. To operate at a level that keeps the country stable, Nigeria’s thermal power plants require an estimated 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) of gas every day.

However, as of February 23, 2026, the actual volume of gas reaching these plants was just 692 mmscf.

“The available gas supply represents less than 43% of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output,” the NISO statement noted.

Because thermal plants form the backbone of Nigeria’s energy generation, any hiccup in the gas pipelines leads to an immediate ripple effect across the entire value chain. Essentially, if there is no gas to burn, there is no electricity to transmit.

 Load Shedding: Keeping the Grid from Total Collapse

To prevent a total national grid collapse, an event that usually plunges the entire country into total darkness for hours or days, NISO has had to implement aggressive load shedding.

This is a technical way of saying they are rationing the little power they have. The operator explained that it is distributing the available 4,300MW strictly according to the NERC Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) allocation percentages.

If your local DisCo is allocated a certain slice of the national pie, they are currently getting that slice of a much smaller pie.

“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation,” NISO explained.

This move is intended to “maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances” that could lead to equipment damage at transmission stations.

 The Maintenance Factor: NNPC and Seplat

The roots of the current crisis can be traced back to mid-February. On February 12, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited warned that some power companies would see a dip in gas availability.

This was due to Seplat Energy Plc, a major supplier to the NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company (NGIC) network, scheduling four days of routine maintenance on its production facilities.

While the maintenance was supposed to be a short-term fix, the recovery of gas pressure in the pipelines often takes longer than the actual repair work, contributing to the energy drought currently being felt at the end of the month.

 The Impact on Consumers and Market Participants

For the average Nigerian household and small business owner, this means a return to heavy generator use and increased diesel or petrol expenses.

NISO expressed regret over the situation, acknowledging the inconvenience to market participants and the general public.

The agency has promised to restore full energy allocation as soon as gas supply improves and the generators at the thermal plants can be ramped back up to their 1,600+ mmscf requirements.

Until then, NISO says it will continue to manage the grid with the limited resources available.

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