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The era of explosive Nigerian student growth in the United Kingdom has met a sharp regulatory correction.
Following the release of the 2024/25 Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data, an analysis by ApplyBoard reveals that Nigerian postgraduate enrolments fell by a staggering 39% year-over-year.
This decline, the steepest of any major student population, is being described by analysts as a “direct and measurable consequence” of the UK government’s January 2024 ban on dependants for most postgraduate taught courses.
The ‘Dependant’ Dependency: Why Nigeria Hit Hardest
While the UK’s total international student intake softened by 6%, the Nigerian market experienced a contraction six times the national average.
The reason lies in a unique demographic profile: Nigeria was one of only two countries (alongside Sri Lanka) where dependant visas historically outnumbered primary student visas.
Key Stat: In 2022/23, Nigerian students relied more heavily on the “family unit” model than any other cohort. When the ban took effect, the primary value proposition of a UK Master’s degree, resettling with family, was effectively neutralized.
The Shift to Research: A New Strategic Pathway?
While taught Master’s programmes (MSc/MA) saw a mass exodus, a different trend emerged in the research sector. Nigerian students are increasingly pivoting to research-based postgraduate programmes (MRes/PhD), which currently remain exempt from the dependant restrictions.
Growth: Nearly 2,900 Nigerian students enrolled in research pathways in 2024/25.
Momentum: This represents a 67% increase year-over-year.
However, ApplyBoard analysts warn that this “loophole” may be closing. The UK Home Office is currently reviewing this exemption, and a new Immigration White Paper released in late 2025 has already begun to soften demand signals for the upcoming cycle.
Data Sidebar: The UK Postgraduate Landscape 2024/25
| Metric | Value / Trend | Context |
| Overall Postgraduate Decline | -10% (389,000 students) | Sector still 15% below the 2022 peak. |
| Nigerian Postgraduate Drop | -39% | The sharpest decline among top source markets. |
| Research Enrolment (Nigeria) | +67% | A pivot to avoid dependant restrictions. |
| Postgraduate Market Share | 57% of all int’l students | Highlighting the UK’s massive reliance on PG demand. |
Looking Ahead: Stabilization or Stagnation?
Early visa data for 2025 suggests a potential “bottoming out” of the decline, but the road to recovery is uneven.
With the Graduate Visa (Post-Study Work) also under scrutiny and the UK’s broader immigration narrative shifting, Nigerian students are increasingly prioritizing “Academic Fit” over “Migration Intent (japa).”
The Bottom Line:
- For UK universities, the “Nigerian Gold Rush” is over. The market has moved from volume-based recruitment to a more specialized, research-heavy engagement.
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