Samsung Q2 Profit Projected to Drop 39% Ahead of Official Release

Samsung Electronics might see a sharp drop in quarterly profits as delays in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip certification and escalating U.S. trade tensions cast a shadow over its AI initiatives.

Analysts expect the South Korean tech giant to post an operating profit of 6.3 trillion won ($4.62 billion) for the April-June period, a steep 39% drop in Samsung Q2 profit, compared to the same quarter last year.

The second-quarter performance, if confirmed, would be Samsung’s lowest profit in a year and a half. It also worsens concerns about the company’s capacity to compete in the accelerating AI hardware space, where rivals like SK Hynix and Micron are gaining ground.

While Samsung has pushed aggressively to position its HBM3E chips at the heart of next-generation AI systems, execution has stumbled. 

Its 12-layer HBM3E stacks reportedly passed Nvidia’s bare-die tests but are still awaiting full-package certification. Meanwhile, both SK Hynix and Micron have already begun large-scale shipments of certified HBM3E chips to Nvidia, securing a head start in the booming AI memory market.

“HBM revenue likely remained flat in the second quarter, as China sales restrictions persist and Samsung has yet to begin supplying its HBM3E 12-high chips to Nvidia,” said Ryu Young-ho, senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities. He added that significant shipments to Nvidia this year are unlikely.

Samsung’s situation is further complicated by its exposure to China, which accounts for roughly 20% of its HBM sales. U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips have disrupted those flows, and more hurdles could be on the way. 

Washington is reportedly weighing the revocation of technology authorisations that allow companies like Samsung to receive American chipmaking tools at their Chinese plants.

That risk of regulatory tightening is making investors doubtful, particularly with the added threat of proposed U.S. tariffs, up to 25% on non-U.S.-made smartphones. 

Analysts warn the current surge in Samsung smartphone sales, driven by pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S., may not last. If tariffs are enforced in the second half of 2025, demand for premium models like the Galaxy S25 and Z Fold 7 could slow sharply.

In the face of these challenges, Samsung has begun supplying its 36GB 12-layer HBM3E stacks to AMD. The U.S. chipmaker confirmed in June that its MI350 AI accelerators will integrate Samsung’s memory chips, an encouraging sign, but not enough to offset Nvidia-related delays.

Investors have taken notice. Despite a 19% rise in Samsung shares this year, the company is still the worst-performing major memory chip stock of 2025. The KOSPI index has climbed 27.3% over the same period, leaving Samsung trailing behind.

As of Monday morning in Seoul, Samsung Electronics shares were down nearly 2%, underperforming the market yet again.

As we await the official release of Samsung Q2 profit, the company has not commented on whether its chips have passed Nvidia’s certification process. The company’s silence, combined with ongoing delays and regulatory risks, has increased doubts about its competitiveness in a market where being first, and fast, matters more than ever.

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