Nigeria’s Inflation May Rise to 15.95% in April

Nigeria’s inflation rate may rise for the second consecutive month, signaling renewed pressure on household spending and the broader economy as food, transport, and energy costs continue to climb.

Analysts and market observers are projecting headline inflation to rise to about 15.85–15.95 percent in April 2026, up from the 15.38 percent recorded in March, according to market forecasts ahead of the latest inflation report from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The projected increase would mark the second consecutive monthly rise in inflation after Nigeria’s inflation rate reversed its earlier easing trend in March.

The March inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that headline inflation rose to 15.38 percent from 15.06 percent in February, driven largely by rising food prices, transportation costs, and accommodation expenses.

Economic analysts say the continued inflationary pressure reflects the lingering impact of higher fuel prices, exchange rate volatility, and rising logistics costs across Nigeria’s supply chain.

According to analysts at Parthian Partners, inflationary pressure in April was influenced by the continued pass-through effect of recent petrol price increases, although month-on-month inflation may moderate slightly compared to the sharp spike seen in March.

The firm noted that petrol prices, which surged from below N900 per litre to above N1,200 in March, continued to exert pressure on transportation and food prices even as the pace of adjustment slowed in April.

Data from the March Consumer Price Index report showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the biggest contributors to inflation, accounting for 5.55 percentage points of the headline figure, followed by restaurants, accommodation services, and transportation.

The report also highlighted worsening inflationary conditions in several rural communities, where food and transportation costs rose sharply.

Economists warn that the renewed inflation trend could complicate monetary policy decisions for the Central Bank of Nigeria as authorities attempt to balance inflation control with economic growth.

Analysts expect the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank to maintain a cautious stance amid concerns that persistent inflationary pressures could weaken consumer purchasing power and increase business operating costs.

Despite the recent uptick, inflation remains significantly lower than the levels recorded in 2025, when headline inflation exceeded 27 percent.

However, economic experts caution that sustaining the earlier disinflation momentum may become increasingly difficult if energy prices, logistics costs, and food supply challenges continue to worsen.

The latest inflation figures from the National Bureau of Statistics are expected to provide clearer direction on the country’s price stability outlook and broader economic conditions in the coming months.

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