Tinubu Tables Nigeria’s Biggest Budget Yet at ₦58.1trn at ₦1400 FX Rate

President Bola Tinubu has laid before the National Assembly a ₦58.1 trillion spending plan for 2026, the largest budget Nigeria has ever proposed, with security, infrastructure and debt servicing taking the largest share.

The proposal, presented to a joint sitting of lawmakers on Friday, sets capital spending at ₦26.08 trillion and non-debt recurrent expenditure at ₦15.25 trillion. 

Expected revenue is put at ₦34.33 trillion, leaving a deficit of ₦23.85 trillion, or 4.28% of GDP, well above the 3% limit in Nigeria’s Fiscal Responsibility Act.

At the core of the budget is a heavy debt burden. Tinubu plans to spend ₦15.52 trillion servicing existing loans, about 27% of total expenditure. 

That single line item is larger than the combined allocations to health and education, a reality that has already led to concerns among economists about how much fiscal space is left to drive growth.

Oil is the budget’s main pillar. The government pegged the crude benchmark at $64.85 per barrel, production at 1.84 million barrels per day, and the exchange rate at ₦1,400 to the dollar. 

Since the presentation, however, the Senate has adjusted the oil price assumption downward to $60 per barrel, noting global price swings and fears of oversupply. 

This looks like an early signal of the risks around revenue projections, especially as Nigeria keeps missing output targets due to theft and weak investment.

On spending priorities, defence and security take the largest share with ₦5.41 trillion, showing the scale of insecurity across the country. Infrastructure follows with ₦3.56 trillion, while education and health receive ₦3.52 trillion and ₦2.48 trillion respectively. 

Though higher than last year’s figures, education spending still falls short of global benchmarks that recommend 15 to 20% of total budgets.

Tinubu told lawmakers that the document goes beyond bookkeeping. “They are a statement of national priorities,” he said. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value-for-money spending.”

Security featured prominently in his remarks, against the backdrop of kidnappings and violent attacks in several regions. “Security remains the foundation of development,” the president said, outlining plans that include modernising the armed forces, intelligence-led policing, tighter border control and technology-driven surveillance. 

He added: “We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes, because security spending must deliver security results.”

The president also returned to the economic reforms that impacted his first months in office, fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalisation, policies that pushed inflation higher. 

More than two years on, Tinubu argued that the worst is over. “I acknowledge these difficulties plainly, and I assure Nigerians that their sacrifices are not in vain,” he said. “The path of reform is seldom smooth, but it is the surest route to lasting stability and shared prosperity.”

Agriculture and food security are another focus of the 2026 budget, Tinubu described them as strategic areas capable of pulling in private investment and easing pressure on households.

“Food security is national security,” he said. “The 2026 Budget prioritises input financing and mechanisation; irrigation and climate-resilient agriculture; storage and processing; and agro-value chains.”

Analysts see strengths and cracks in equal measure. Higher capital spending and bigger allocations to security, schools and hospitals point to good intent. 

But the scale of borrowing, growing debt expenses and optimistic oil assumptions lead to questions about execution. 

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